Global burden of disease due to young-onset dementia and the forecast for 2050: update from global burden of disease study 2021.

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of young-onset dementia (YOD) is increasing worldwide, leading to greater economic and social burden, necessitating strategic management and prevention. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using GBD 2021 data, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were analyzed by age, sex, and risk factors across five age groups. ARIMA and Bayesian models were applied to predict disease burden through 2050. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, disease burden increased in both sexes aged ≥55 years, with the greatest rise in the 55-59 group. DALYs rates were consistently higher in females, peaking in the 60-64 group. High fasting plasma glucose was the leading risk factor. Model performance varied by sex and age; applying the best-fitting models indicated a continued increase in burden, particularly among females. CONCLUSIONS: YOD burden has risen over time and is associated with modifiable factors such as high blood glucose and body mass index. The increasing trend is expected to persist, highlighting the need for effective management strategies to reduce future socioeconomic impact. Many studies have examined Alzheimer’s and dementia, focusing on all ages or those 65+. However, middle-aged adults (40–64) are often overlooked, and no study has analyzed this group by sex, age, and risk factors, which is crucial for tailored prevention and management of young-onset dementia.This study advances current knowledge of YOD by offering a detailed trend analysis by sex, age, and major risk factors, focusing on the middle-aged adults often overlooked in dementia research. In addition, by utilizing ARIMA and Bayesian forecasting models, we projected the disease burden of YOD through 2050. These projections provide important insights for future public health planning and highlight the necessity of proactive strategies to address the growing impact of YOD.The burden of disease attributable to YOD has increased steadily among middle-aged adults from 1990 to 2021, driven primarily by changes in dietary habits, high fasting glucose, and elevated body mass index. This trend is expected to continue through 2050, suggesting a rising socioeconomic burden. The increasing burden of YOD in middle-aged adults underscores the urgency of expanding public health strategies beyond the traditional focus on late-onset dementia (LOD).